Summer Preview Ends

Today was the fourth day in a row that a 90 degree temperature was recorded on Delmarva. Ocean City was the only spot today that reached 90. Winds were stronger today out of the southwest which kept temperatures down a few degrees from the past three days. The ocean water is now starting to warm up as well. The full sunshine the past several days combined with calm seas allowed the water temperatures to warm up into the mid 50s recorded at the offshore buoy off the Delaware coast. I expect teh ocean temperatures to fluctuate up and down over the next few weeks as storms kick up the colder water below. The Bay waters should have warmed up as well which will be great news for crabbers.

A cold front which has been sitting out in the Midwest over the past several days is now on the move. The frotn will spread clouds and bring and end to the well-above average temperatures. The front will slide through Delmarva Wednesday morning causing a wind switch to the northeast. There will be a chance for showers as most of the showers are placed behind the front. Highs on Wednesday will be much cooler in the lower 60s in many areas. Cool temperatures in the 60s will continue on Thursday before we make another brief run at 80 degrees on Friday.

Storms Continue on Wednesday

A jet stream trough continued over the northeast today allowing for more showers and thunderstorms to develop. An upper-level cold pocket of air shifted across the mid-Atlantic today which destabilized the atmosphere and allowed showers and isolated storms to develop. Some of the showers contained brief downpours and gusty winds. With the cold pocket of air aloft, hail was possible with any thunderstorms and was reported in Virginia. A severe thunderstorm developed late afternoon in southeastern Worcester county, MD and northeastern Accomack county VA which covered the ground with hail 5 miles NW of Chincoteague, VA. Pea to nickel size hail was reported. Drier weather will return on Thursday as the trough lifts out of the northeast.

A ridge in the jet stream will then develop over the east late in the week and hold into next week. This shift in the jet stream will allow warmer air to expand across the mid-Atlantic. Strong late April sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s inland this weekend into early next week.

Cool Weather Continues

The start of the Spring season has turned out to be dry but on the cool side. Today's highs reached the mid to upper 50s and it looks like we won't reach those values until late this week. High latitude jet stream blocking will occur downstream from the northeast which will lead to cooler than average conditions for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. A back door cold front (a front which approaches from the north or northeast) will slide through tonight bringing just a few clouds and a Canadian air-mass for early this week. Abundant sunshine will prevail but the northerly winds will keep temperatures cooler in the upper 40s to low 50s through Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate some by the end of the week approaching the low 60s before another cold front slides through late in the weekend. Expect a small chance for showers on Thursday and then a better chance with the cold front passage for next Sunday. I expect overall temperatures to remain below average through the month of March into April as the downstream jet stream blocking continues.

Snow Totals

Last nights storm system is now off the coast of Main but dropped anywhere from 2-12" of snow across Delmarva. Most of the highest widespread amounts were across the northern viewing area in the upper MD Eastern Shore counties and in central and northern Delaware. There were a few other locally higher amounts across the area. Here some snowfall amounts and a few photos from around Delmarva. Thanks to everyone for their snow reports and photos.

Royal Oak, MD (Talbot county): 12.2"

Church Creek, MD (Dorchester county): 11.0"

Centerville, MD (Queen Anne's county): 10.3"

Frankford, DE (Sussex county): 9.0"

Ridgely, MD (Caroline county): 8.8"

Argos Corner, DE (Sussex county): 8.5"

Riverdale, DE (Sussex county): 6.0"

Cambridge, MD (Dorchester county): 6.0"

Lewes, DE (Sussex county): 5.5"

Sharptown, MD (Wicomico county): 5.5"

Salisbury, MD Airport (Wicomico county): 3.5"

Berlin, MD (Worcester county): 2.5"

Photo: Carol Loy (Oriole, MD)

Photo: C.J Wood (Ridgely, MD)

Photo: C.J. Wood (Ridgely, MD)

Photo: Hunter Outten (Frankford, DE)

Needed Rain in the Forecast

An area of low pressure developing over the center Plaines will track northeast towards the Great Lakes on Wednesday. The storm does not look to be very intense and most the of the energy will be to the northwest of Delmarva. However expect rain showers to develop by late morning from west to east and continue off and on through the afternoon and evening. It is possible that areas north and west of Delmarva such as southern PA and central and western MD could see a brief period of a wintry mix at the onset if the precipitation starts early enough. Warm air will then quickly win out and turn everything to rain. A milder push of air will move in tomorrow afternoon and evening and then exit Thursday as a cold front moves through.

Although rainfall amounts should only be around a 1/4 inch or so this would be some welcomed rain. Since the start of 2009 we are already down anywhere from 3-5 inches of precipitation. Typically February is one of the drier months of the year but March averages over 4.5" of precipitation. Also, the overall weather pattern in the next week or so does look fairly active and have potential for some storm development.

Arctic Air Returns

A chilly day is on tap for the Eastern Shore Thursday, a low pressure system located just of the east coast will continue to move northeast as a high pressure system begins to build in to Ohio Valley area. This set up will help provide cold arctic air to sink into the northeast with windy conditions on Thursday. Along the Eastern Shore there will be bitterly cold temperatures Thursday with highs only in the lower 20s and with winds out of the northeast between 15-25 mph, making wind chills drop into the single digits. Overnight Thursday, winds become calm but with clear skies, which will bring tomorrows evening low near the singles digits to the lower teens. Expect temperatures in Salisbury to be near 8 degrees, and along the coast in the lower teens. Mild temperatures begin to creep back in Friday and especially for the weekend with highs in the 50s.

Another Round of Wintry Weather

After another stellar weather day with highs near 60 degrees, winter weather returns to the forecast. Last week it looked like a disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream would phase with a disturbance in the northern branch of the jet stream to form a strong storm system. Over the weekend changes occurred in the forecast showing that these two disturbances would not phase and remain separate. This has a big impact on the overall forecast for the northeast as no major storm system will develop. However there still will be the opportunity for some light snow through the day on Tuesday for Delmarva.

An area of low pressure is developing ahead of a cold front over the south and will continue to track northeast on Tuesday. This low pressure area will remain well offshore allowing the heaviest moisture to remain offshore. A second upper-level disturbance will rotate down from the Great Lakes and intensify on Tuesday. Initially the precipitation will arrive overnight Monday in the form as some light rain and snow showers. As the offshore low pressure intensifies on Tuesday, colder air will be drawn into the area allowing the rain to change over to snow during the morning hours. The strong upper-level disturbance will then approach us by the afternoon. This will cause an increase in precipitation in the from of light snow. The axis of heaviest snowfall looks to setup up across Eastern PA, Central NJ, and Southern NJ.

Overall I see the chance for a 1-3 inch snowfall across northern Delmarva and a coating to an inch for central locations. Amounts will really be determined by how quick the rain changes to snow and the location and intensity of the two storm systems. The heaviest precipitation looks to occur in the afternoon. Given the temperatures will be above 32 and the snow falling during the daytime, the highest accumulation should be on grassy areas. However if any heavier bursts develop, the snow will accumulate on the roads with reduced visibility. The snow will then taper off to flurries by the evening and temperatures will fall below freezing. Any standing water will likely freeze so icy conditions are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.