Another Round of Wintry Weather

After another stellar weather day with highs near 60 degrees, winter weather returns to the forecast. Last week it looked like a disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream would phase with a disturbance in the northern branch of the jet stream to form a strong storm system. Over the weekend changes occurred in the forecast showing that these two disturbances would not phase and remain separate. This has a big impact on the overall forecast for the northeast as no major storm system will develop. However there still will be the opportunity for some light snow through the day on Tuesday for Delmarva.

An area of low pressure is developing ahead of a cold front over the south and will continue to track northeast on Tuesday. This low pressure area will remain well offshore allowing the heaviest moisture to remain offshore. A second upper-level disturbance will rotate down from the Great Lakes and intensify on Tuesday. Initially the precipitation will arrive overnight Monday in the form as some light rain and snow showers. As the offshore low pressure intensifies on Tuesday, colder air will be drawn into the area allowing the rain to change over to snow during the morning hours. The strong upper-level disturbance will then approach us by the afternoon. This will cause an increase in precipitation in the from of light snow. The axis of heaviest snowfall looks to setup up across Eastern PA, Central NJ, and Southern NJ.

Overall I see the chance for a 1-3 inch snowfall across northern Delmarva and a coating to an inch for central locations. Amounts will really be determined by how quick the rain changes to snow and the location and intensity of the two storm systems. The heaviest precipitation looks to occur in the afternoon. Given the temperatures will be above 32 and the snow falling during the daytime, the highest accumulation should be on grassy areas. However if any heavier bursts develop, the snow will accumulate on the roads with reduced visibility. The snow will then taper off to flurries by the evening and temperatures will fall below freezing. Any standing water will likely freeze so icy conditions are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.