Eye Into the Future

An interesting new report was just released from the US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research.

It seems that extreme weather has become the norm recently. From terrible flooding in the Midwest to a record number of tornadoes and tornado deaths. What will happen to weather and climate extremes if global warming continues? That's the question answered in this recent report.

This report is the first of its kind to detail projected changes in weather and climate extremes in North America. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) evaluated similar events but on a global basis.

The report doesn't have a very optimistic outlook for the future. According to scientific evidence, a warming world will be accompanied by changes in the intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extent of weather and climate extremes. The report also states that droughts, heavy downpours, excessive heat, and intense hurricanes are likely to become more common as heat-trapping greenhouse gases continue to be pumped into the atmosphere.

Alarming changes, due to the warming of the Earth, have already taken place over the past few decades. The report states that continued change is projected for the future...

• Abnormally hot days and nights, along with heat waves, are very likely to become more common. Cold nights are very likely to become less common.
• Sea ice extent is expected to continue to decrease and may even disappear in the Arctic Ocean in summer in coming decades.
• Precipitation, on average, is likely to be less frequent but more intense.
• Droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some regions.
• Hurricanes will likely have increased precipitation and wind.
• The strongest cold-season storms in the Atlantic and Pacific are likely to produce stronger winds and higher extreme wave heights.

Hurricane Katrina's eyewall

Source: NOAA

On this day...

A couple of random facts for today's weather blog...

First about the rather strong storms that pushed through the area last night. Lightning and thunder accompanied storms that dropped heavy rain after 11pm last night in Salisbury. According to the NWS, locally heavy downpours averaged between 1-2 inches with up to 3 inches across southern Somerset County. The NWS also reported pea to marble size hail across southern Somerset County and along the Accomack/Northampton, VA county line.

Second...On this day in history, Hurricane Agnes made landfall in the Florida panhandle.

Agnes rainfall totals; courtesy wikipedia.com

After forming over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on June 14th, Agnes became a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on June 18th. Agnes continued to move northward and arrived to Florida's panhandle as a Category 1 hurricane. Agnes then weakened to a depression over Georgia. It then moved over eastern North Carolina and regained tropical storm strength before moving back out into the Atlantic. A few days later, on June 22, Agnes made a final landfall near New York City just-under-hurricane-strength. The next day Agnes merged with a non-tropical low and affected the Northeast.

The major impact from Agnes was heavy rains (6-12 inches, locally 19 inches) that caused terrible flooding from the Carolinas to New York. So much fresh water was flushed into Chesapeake Bay that its seafood industry was badly damaged for several years. In an ironic twist, the flooding caused by Agnes lead to the creation of the federally financed Conrail railroad system.

Agnes caused 122 deaths in the United States...nine in Florida from severe thunderstorms while the remainder were associated with the flooding. Maryland had the highest per capita death toll of all five states declared disaster areas by President Nixon (Florida, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New York).

The storm was responsible for $11.6 billion (after adjusting for inflation) in damage in the United States, making it the seventh costliest storm in US history. The name Agnes was retired from the list of Atlantic storm names, making it the only category 1 hurricane to be retired at the time, and one of 5 today.

Agnes information courtesy of wikipedia.com and theweathercompany.com

Update on Tropics

The Atlantic hurricane season started June 1st, but so far it's been quiet. We've only seen Tropical Storm Arthur which was expected to drop over 10" of rain in portions of Belize. Last year at this time, two storms had already formed, Subtropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Barry.

The image above shows a tropical wave in the Atlantic that the National Hurricane Center plans to keep an eye on. As of the 8 am advisory, the storm was located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands and is moving westward near 20 mph. While some signs of organization are present, NHC says upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for further development.

Picture courtesy of NHC

More Storm Reports

Here are a few other storm reports from across the Mid Atlantic region:

DOWNTOWN RICHMOND (CITY OF RICHMOND) VA - 70 MPH ESTIMATED GUST IN CHURCH HILL

MILLINGTON KENT MD - TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN MILLINGTON

NE ALEXANDRIA DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC - 62 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT WASHINGTON NATIONALS BALLPARK

WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC - LARGE TENT DAMAGED. 10 INJURED...3 ADULTS AND 7 CHILDREN.

The drop in temperatures is also impressive. Salisbury's airport dropped from 84 degrees at 6 pm to 65 degrees at 7 pm! A cooler and more comfortable airmass will build into the area for midweek.

Monday Storm Reports

Strong to severe storms trackes across Delmarva this evening resulting in some wind damage arround Delmarva. Here are the reports as of 10PM:

2 N EXMORE ACCOMACK VA 3756 7582 POWER LINES DOWN. (AKQ)

WHALEYVILLE WORCESTER MD 3840 7530 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN (AKQ)

S DELMAR WICOMICO MD 3845 7557 TREES AND SIDING FROM AN APARTMENT BUILDING DOWN ON SOUTHSIDE OF DELMAR (AKQ)


N CAMBRIDGE DORCHESTER MD 3856 7608 LARGE TREE DOWN IN CAMBRIDGE (AKQ)


CLAYTON KENT DE 3929 7563 WIRES DOWN IN CLAYTON. (PHI)


After the storms passed, the sun came out in the West, while it was still raining in the East. This caused this nice double rainbow to develop and had great views in Delaware. Photo taken by Travis Michels

Severe Weather Threat

A significant pattern change will take place today. After last week's (and even today's) very warm temperatures with highs near 90 degrees, temperatures will cool down to the upper 70s for the middle part of the week. The transition to cooler temperatures will occur thanks in part to a cold front. Let's spell it out...

Thunderstorms are already popping up in West Virginia, and northern Kentucky. That activity will become more widespread this afternoon/evening during the heating of the day. The right ingredients seem to be coming together for thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. That's why SPC has placed all of Delmarva in a slight risk (green on picture) for severe storms and the northern part of the peninsula in a moderate risk (red on picture) for storms. Ahead of the front, lots of warm moist air will be pumped in from the south allowing the atmosphere to become unstable. That plus strong winds aloft will favor thunderstorms with possible bowing segments. The main threats for today's storms will be damaging winds, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and hail.

Behind the front, the atmosphere remains unstable as an area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere sits to our north. In this weather pattern, temperatures will remain cooler, in the upper 70s to low 80s with afternoon cumulus developing and even the slight chance for some light pop up showers.

Updates to the Kansas Tornadoes

Below I blogged about the severe weather in Kansas. Here are a few updates to the previous blog.

The tornado (EF-3) that hit Chapman, Kan. was determined to have a path length of 11 miles. It injuried a total of four people and there was one fatality.

The tornado (EF-4) that hit Manhattan, Kan. had no injuries or fatalities, however it did cause a lot of damage to houses, businesses and Kansas State University.

A third tornado hit Pottawatomie. It was an EF-2, with peak winds at 130 mph, with a maximum path width of 300 yards and a path length of 16 miles. There were no injuries, but there was one fatality.

The fourth tornado has not been rated yet at this point.

While I was out in Kansas, I also voulnteered to do the morning weather at a local radio station in Manhattan, Kan. Angel 95.3 FM. Jerry Hutchinson, the owner of the radio station sent me a message about this event. Him, his wife and one son were working in a movie, Can We Talk, in Chapman, Kan. He said about 70% of the town was wiped out, including the church that some of the scenes were shot in. (This is from the first tornado mentioned above.)

I have posted more photos of this event throughout the blog. They are photos posted by Jerry from Manhattan, Kan.